Weather conditions have been unpredictable for the last few days with social media being flooded with pictures of snow on one day and summer vibes the next, but there is more than what meets the eye.
According to Dr Anthony Turton, who is a professor at the Centre for Environmental Management at the University of the Free State, extreme weather is not new as there are many documented cases of extreme weather across the entire country over recorded history.
“It is just that in the modern world with social media, we hear more about these things and assume this to be unique. This is a global trend, not just a South African one,” he explained.
He explained that credible research conducted by UCT and funded by the Water Research Commission has shown how rainfall has changed since the 1950s.
“Before 1982, there was more rainfall than after 1982, but the season in which it fell also changed. This is particularly relevant to the winter rainfall and marginal rainfall areas. So two things are known to be happening – the seasonal distribution of rainfall is changing and the distribution of rain across a given year is also changing,” he said.
Therefore, an important thing to note is that change is inevitable and is normal when it comes to weather conditions.
“It is this change that drives experimentation which results in resilience. If our weather was in a steady state, we would be less adaptive and therefore more vulnerable to shocks when they occur naturally. The more stressors we confront, the stronger we become because the more we are forced to adapt, even if most people do not like change.”
The biggest direct impact is on the agricultural secto
r, specifically where crop production is involved. Turton said that the known changes to the seasonal patterns have major implications for early planning.
He concluded by adding that “Resilience is based on our capacity to adapt, which in turn is driven by stressors. Without stressors we could never produce good athletes, and we could never grow good crops. Ingenuity happens on the cusp of chaos, for that is where the Boer makes a plan.”
Gypseenia Lion
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