Voter turnout will be critical – Ipsos poll

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Photo: ISS Africa

With less than two months before the national and provincial elections on 8 May 2019, the political debates and activities are reaching fever pitch. Politicians are walking the streets trying to inspire voters to make crosses next to their party names.  On social media, opinions are shared freely and the more traditional printed and electronic media are all carrying election stories.

Global market research and a consulting firm, Ipsos, has released its regular “Pulse of the People™” study, conducted with a randomly selected sample of adult South Africans.

The voters’ roll compiled by the IEC contains 26,774,102 names of South Africans who are registered to vote, meaning that more than 10 million South Africans of voting age have chosen not to register and therefore not to vote in this election. This can probably be attributed to the fact that of all South Africans eligible to vote, a quarter (25%) are not interested in politics / elections and almost four in every ten (38%) say that there is no political party that expresses their views.

Even among those who registered to vote, more than a third (37%) have indicated that they agree with the statement “There is no political party expressing my views”. However, this does not mean that they will not turn out to vote on Election Day. But it must be accepted that uncertainty is part of the political scene in the country.

Currently, just more than six in every ten registered voters (61%) will put their mark next to the ANC’s name in a national election. The ruling party is followed by the DA (16%), EFF (9%) and IFP and FF+ (both at 1%). 11% of registered voters answered that they would not vote, would not vote for a current party, refused to answer or didn’t know which party they would vote for.

The table below summarises the results from similar polls conducted in 2018 and the results from the latest poll.

 

Party Party Choice on the National Ballot

May 2018[1]

%

Party Choice on the National Ballot

Nov 2018[2]

ALL REGISTERED VOTERS

%

Party Choice on the National Ballot

Feb 2019[3]

%

ALL REGISTERED VOTERS

 

ANC 60 61 61
DA 13 14 16
EFF 7 9 9
IFP 1 2 1
FF+ 1 1
Another party* 1 1 1
Would not vote 5 3 3
None of the current parties** 1 1  

1

Refused to answer 7 5 4
Not registered to vote 2
Don’t know 3 3 3

 

[1] These results (May 2018) are for all South Africans of voting age, i.e. 18 years and older.
[2] These results (November 2018) are for all South Africans of voting age, who are registered to vote.
[3] These results (February 2019) are for all South Africans of voting age, who are registered to vote.

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