Eskom foresees that load-shedding will remain at “Stage 2” throughout the upcoming winter season. This, according to Dan Marokane, the Group Chief Executive of the power utility.
He explained that this projection is based on the expectation that the Unplanned Capacity Loss Factor (UCLF) will hit 14 000MW during winter, a decrease from the 15 000MW anticipated last year. The UCLF represents the rate at which generating units fail and operate below optimal levels.
“For winter 2024 the likely scenario from our assumptions is that load-shedding will be maintained within Stage 2, at most. In the extreme case where the unreliability increases, that component may go occasionally [to] Stage 5 but we really think that based on what we see and the performance of the fleet, load-shedding will stay within Stage 2.
“This is on the back of the decrease of the backline unreliability capacity reduction of 1 000MW, which is what we use for our baseline assumptions,” Marokane said.
Compiled by Warren Hawkins
